Super Bowl 57: Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
Matchups, predictions, props, and odds for Super Bowl LVII…
The Super Bowl is not only “the sporting spectacle” in the United States, but arguably the biggest of all events being held on a yearly basis on American soil.
Every year, more than 200 million people around the world stood still to watch the best teams from AFC and NFC battle it out for the Vince Lombardi trophy in a game forever etched in the annals of time.
For sportsbooks, this is also that time of the year when they ratchet up their marketing machines as they compete for an overwhelming influx of wagers expected to flow into the industry this week.
According to research conducted by Sienna College Research Institute and Bonaventure University’s Jandoli School of Communication, 75 percent of the American population claimed they will be watching Super Bowl LVII. That is a staggering 248.9 million people, not including those people who will watch the game overseas.
Sportsbooks are in high spirits this will also be a record-breaking year for Super Bowl betting. The American Gaming Association (AGA) recently released a report that 50 million Americans plan to wager on the NFL championship match, projecting $16 billion handles for the sports betting industry in a single day.
In the early days, the rules of sports betting were simple and straightforward: place a bet on the team or competitor you think is going to win, and then after you either gain some or lose some based on the results of the game. But as the appetite for more exciting options grows over the years, wagering on sports has evolved into a complex, multi-facet transaction. Soon after, sportsbooks introduced wagering on the point spread, over/under, props, and futures betting and the exotic props are usually available in exclusive events. This new kind of betting market provides bettors with another way to increase their stakes outside traditional money-line betting.
Exotic Props
Super Bowl LVII is a class of its own, though. Knowing bettor’s insatiable hunger for alternative choices, sportsbooks have gotten creative over the years as they began offering what is termed exotic props. This is a segmented market of props that focus on topics other than conventional data or game outcomes. These kinds of props aren't often seen throughout the regular season, but they are more common during major events like the Super Bowl.
National Anthem
Chris Stapleton, a Grammy Award winner, will perform the national anthem before the game begins. According to the NFL, Stapleton has 15 Country Music Association awards and 10 Academy of Country Music awards.
Sportsbooks provide an Over/Under length for the time it takes the artist to sing the national anthem, and you may wager on whether the vocalist goes Over or Under that duration throughout their performance. The Over/Under for country singer Chris Stapleton to sing the national anthem at Super Bowl 57 is set at 119.5 seconds.
Pick Over 124.5 @ -182: I haven’t heard Chris Stapleton sing the United States national anthem. But given his country music background, I’ve got a good vibe he will sing for the duration of 124 seconds.
Coin Toss
Betting on the Super Bowl coin toss is a popular prop that is available at every sportsbook during a big sports event such as the Super Bowl. The most frequent strategy to wager on the coin toss is to simply guess which side of the coin will win: Heads or Tails?
Since coin flip has a 50/50 chance of landing on your preferred side., you won’t be able to perform any handicapping or research for this prop pick.
Pick Heads @ +100: I don’t which side of the coin will land face up, but my intuition says heads. So be it!
Halftime Show Props
Multi-Grammy Award singer and songwriter Rihanna have been chosen to perform on the Super Bowl halftime show, which has produced iconic pop culture moments throughout the years.
Prop betting does not have to stop just because of the action on the field. Over the years, the Super Bowl halftime show has developed a vast menu of exotic prop choices, with online sportsbooks having a great time with the featured artists. This year, sportsbooks give bettors the chance to bet on how many songs the R&B artist will be performing in the halftime show, Will it be fewer or more than 8 songs?
Pick Over 8 Songs @ -115: To be honest, I cannot count the number of hit songs Rihanna has released throughout her illustration career. I just know that it’s more than 8. And also given the lackluster showing by Maroon 5 in last year’s Halftime show, it seems like destiny for Rihanna to bring back the glamor of the show by giving us one of the most scintillating performances ever.
Color of the Gatorade Bath
One of the most popular exotic props is the color of the Gatorade bath given to the winning coach of the Super Bowl, which is a Super Bowl tradition.
Although orange has been the most popular hue in recent years, blue has been utilized in the previous two Super Bowls. Blue was also the winning color for the Gatorade shower last year. Following LA's triumph, Rams head coach Sean McVay got showered with Blue Gatorade by his players.
Pick Red @ +450: The winning color of the Gatorade shower entirely hinges on the color of the team I picked to win that match.
Best Player Props
NFL player prop odds are usually offered for all NFL games. However, given the attention a special event like the Super Bowl can generate, these markets are going to be huge for sportsbooks. With various options to gamble on the game performance of nearly every Chiefs and Eagles player, Super Bowl player props are more popular among gamblers at some sportsbooks than standard betting markets.
Touchdown Scorers
With 15 touchdowns in 17 career playoff games, Kansas Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce will pass Rob Gronkowski (15) on his next trip to the end zone and will be second only to wideout legend Jerry Rice (22) in NFL playoffs history. The question now is can he score against a Philadelphia pass defense that has only allowed three tight end touchdowns?
So far, Kelce is the favorite to score the first and last touchdowns and finish as multiple TD scorers in the game. Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts comes in second given his reputation as a dual-threat signal caller.
In the NFC championship, Hurts broke Cam Newton's single-season running touchdown record (15). Is Hurts worth a bet at +105 odds to add to his touchdown total against a Chiefs team that has allowed four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks?
Pick Travis Kelce @ +600 for Multiple TDS: The star tight-end scored a TD in the AFC championship game two weeks ago. While I am not sure he will score the first TD of the game, Kelce’s endurance and reliability late in the game will allow him to deliver the key plays and scores down the stretch.
Live Passing Props
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite in this player props category for good reasons. Mahomes has exceeded 38.5 passing attempts in only nine of 19 games this season (47.4%), while only six of 13 postseason games (46%). But let's look at his prior two Super Bowl performances. His head coach has cranked up game plans that emphasize Mahomes' throwing skills, attempting 42 passes in Super Bowl LIV and 49 attempts in Super Bowl LV. Mahomes attempted 43 passes against Cincinnati in the AFC championship game, preferring to stay in the pocket due to an ankle injury. The fate of this game will most likely be determined by Mahomes' right arm, resulting in a market bettors should consider.
Pick Over 25 Completed Passes for Mahomes @ -115: Despite the Eagles’ vaunted defense and recent injury, people should not forget that Mahomes is one of the all-time greats when it comes to hitting his targets. He is the engine of the Chiefs’ offense and I have full trust that Andy Reid will draw new plays that will allow his quarterback to catch the defense by surprise.
Team Props
Team props are essentially wagers on the performance of the Chiefs or Eagles. These might be handy if you have a pleasant vibe about one team's performance but aren't entirely sure about the other. The Over/Under for how many points each side will score is a common team prop.
Total Rushing TDs
The Eagles have a strong emphasis on running the ball, as evidenced by their high ranking in rushing yards per game during the regular season (146.8 yards per game) and their impressive average in the postseason. Their success in running the ball has also had a positive impact on the passing game, allowing quarterback Jalen Hurts to have more opportunities to make plays through the air.
Head coach Nick Sirianni's ability to establish the run game has been a key factor in the team's success. By dominating the game script with a strong running attack, he has been able to open up the passing game and create more opportunities for Hurts.
Overall, the Eagles' run-first approach has proven to be effective, particularly in the postseason where they have been averaging an impressive 208 rushing yards per game. This demonstrates the importance of having a balanced offensive attack that incorporates both a strong running game and a potent passing game in order to succeed in the NFL playoffs.
Kansas has a tendency to rely more on passing than running during regular-season play. However, their average rushing yards per game in the postseason suggests that they may be putting more emphasis on running the ball in their playoff games.
Pick Over 0.5 Rushing TDs for Kansas @ -125: As I said, Kansas's offense may have been generated from passing throughout their regular-season campaign but the Chiefs have begun exploring running game options and actually made some success this postseason. Reid has built a reputation as a masterful tactician that will continue to ride on his quarterback’s passing abilities, and at the same time, try to expose the opposing team’s defensive weaknesses.
Both Teams Scored in the First Quarter
Experts give this Super Bowl prop play with favorable odds due to the strong first-quarter scoring of both the Eagles and the Chiefs. The Eagles rank fourth and the Chiefs fifth in the NFL in terms of average first-quarter points this season, with 5.8 and 5.4 points respectively. Furthermore, these averages have increased for both teams in their last three games, with the Eagles scoring an impressive 10.3 points per first quarter and the Chiefs scoring a notable 5.7 points per first quarter.
Pick Yes for Both Eagles and Chiefs Scoring at the First Quarter @ +105: Both teams possess the tools to get themselves on the scoreboard right in the opening salvo. Don’t worry this won’t be the same as last year’s anemic start. Expect both teams to trade blows from the get-go.
Super Bowl MVP
Quarterbacks have bagged the Super Bowl MVP 31 out of 51 times, so it’s understandable to see Jalen Hurts (+130) and Patrick Mahomes (+130) leading the pack of favorites to win the individual award. Then again, non-quarterbacks Travis Kelce (+1600), AJ Brown (+1800), Miles Sanders (+2500), and Devon Smith (+3100) all have decent chances to make a run at the MVP, as proven by Los Angeles wide receiver Cooper Kupp last year.
Pick Patrick Mahomes @ +130: This is going to be a career-defining moment for Mahomes and I do believe this is the game that will cement him as the best QB post-Tom Brady era. With or without injury, Mahomes will deliver a stellar performance come Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
It seems like both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles have their strengths and weaknesses going into Super Bowl LVII. While the Eagles have a strong defense and talented receivers, the Chiefs have a quarterback in Patrick Mahomes who has been successful despite injuries, and the best pass-blocking offensive line in the league. With both teams having the same number of points and win-loss total, it's difficult to predict the outcome of the game.
Super Bowl LVII is predicted to be a highly competitive championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles, two top-seeded, strong teams. It's a unique situation as both teams have the same point and win-loss records for the regular season and postseason, with 546 points and 16- 3 losses each.
I don't expect a lot of high-scoring action during Super Bowl LVII. Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles have strong offenses and equally impressive defense units, featuring effective pass rushes. Recent Super Bowls have generally had lower-scoring outcomes, with each of the last four games falling below the total, and I expect this trend to continue in 2023.
In the first two days after the Super Bowl LVII line was posted, there was some unusual movement in the market as the Chiefs went from being a 1.5-point favorite to a 2-point underdog. This change was likely due to the Chiefs' narrow win and the Eagles' easy victory, as well as injury concerns for the Chiefs, who have two weeks to recover.
I believe the market will shift back in favor of the Chiefs, and getting them as underdogs while they are on the positive side of the key number of one is an enticing opportunity one needs to take advantage of.
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Eagles 18
BetMGM's odds
Spread: +1.5 (-110) / -1.5 (-110)
Total: o/u 50.5(-110)
Moneyline: +105 / -125
Super Bowl XLII is here and there's no better time to bet on football!
Make sure to track all your bets this weekend in the Vault app to see your stats, trends, and where you're most profitable.
