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It was a tough day for Algo yesterday, going 0-1 in a small slate of games. Today is the opposite. Looking for a big day, with 5 hot or warm picks as I write this.
Hawks @ Wizards - Hot Pick, Over 245
These are 2 of the highest scoring teams in the league, with 2 of the worst defenses in the league. 3 of the Hawks last 4 games would have hit this over. 2 of the Wizards last 4 games would have hit this over as well. As long as Trae Young and Bradley Beal play, this should be a safe play. We might have dueling 50 point games on our hands.
Spurs @ Nets - Hot Pick, Over 223
Kyrie Irving is out for the season for the Nets. Lamarcus Aldridge is out for the Spurs tonight. The Nets have sustainable backups for Irving. The Spurs can't quite say the same for Aldridge. For each of these teams, 3 of their last 4 games have hit this total. Brooklyn is coming off of an awful loss to Memphis at home, they won't go down as easy tonight.
Pacers @ Bulls - Hot Pick, Under 211
Zach Lavine is questionable for tonight's matchup. This is a huge factor on the total. Without Lavine, the Bulls offense does not have a main orchestrator. Lauri Markkanen just came back from injury which helps Chicago's offense a bit, but he can only do so much as a big. In both of these team's last 5 games, only the Pacers had one game go under 211. This is usually where Vegas and Algo know something we don't.
Bucks @ Lakers - Warm Pick, Under 228.5
Although the Bucks have the best offense in the NBA, this game is going to feel like an NBA Finals game. In their first matchup the total ended at 215 and I expect it to land somewhere around there again. Lebron and Giannis are separating themselves in the MVP conversation, with this being their last chance to go head-to-head. All 5 of the Bucks last 5 games have gone under 228.5, and all but 1 of the Lakers last 5 have gone under 228.5. This seems almost too easy.
Jazz @ Celtics - Warm Pick, Under 221
Both of these teams have been playing fairly high scoring games recently. The Celtics are without Jaylen Brown, and Gordon Hayward is day-today so his status is up in the air. This can have an impact on the total going lower than expected. Even so, the Celtics always find a way to play in close games. If Utah, completely healthy, can hold the lead the whole game the Celtics will find a way to stay in it. For this under to hit, I think the Celtics need to pull away early, and hold the lead the entire game.